GROTON, Conn. – On Friday, Sept. 12, Fitch’s varsity football team will enter its first home game against the co-op Henry Abbot Technical High School and Immaculate High School team, but what are the odds Fitch will win?
Hailing from Danbury, the Abbot/Immaculate team (ATI) went 7-3 last football season, with four of those wins being away games. Fitch, however, went 5-5 last season, with only one of those wins being at home. When comparing how Fitch performs at home to how ATI performs away, it seems as though Fitch struggles to advance the ball, while ATI seems to perform its best. Only taking these facts into consideration, one may assume ATI is the clear favorite for this game. However, the matchup may be closer than you think.
Both teams took hits when the class of 2025 graduated. However, both teams have relatively young leaders in passing, rushing, and receiving yards.
In one away game last season, where ATI won, two out of three of the leading players in passing yards were underclassmen. Four out of the six leading players in rushing yards were underclassmen. Three out of five for receiving yards. These statistics all boast a strong offense for ATI coming into this season. However, two out of three of their best defensive players were seniors last school year, leaving a hole in their defensive line. This seems to be the only notable gap in the team’s roster, heading into the ‘25-’25 season, which could be bad news for the Falcons.
As for Fitch, in their one home win last year, all three leading players in passing yards were underclassmen. In addition, 4 out of 5 of the leading players in rushing yards were underclassmen. Both of the leading receiving players were underclassmen. The only defensive player listed for this game, via MaxPreps, was also an underclassman.
This may seem optimistic for Fitch, yet two of the team’s key players, Devin Cook (Jr.) and Michael El Khoury (Jr.), are out with injuries and will not be playing in this game.
ATI’s best player, as it seems from the records, Dante Rivera was a senior last year. Comparatively, the core of Fitch’s best players, because one standout couldn’t be determined, were all underclassmen, including Cook and El Khoury.
Both teams have/have had holes to fill; however, ATI had the entire offseason to do so; Fitch doesn’t have that time.
Statistically speaking, ATI’s score margin is also higher than Fitch’s. They tend to blow teams out of the water and score more touchdowns. However, research shows that they had an easier schedule than Fitch did last year, which could account for their large score margin and better record. In two games last year, an ATI win and a Fitch loss, where the scores were similar, ATI beat the 152nd-ranked team in the state, while Fitch lost to the 12th-ranked team in the state. ATI is ranked 90th in the state, while Fitch is 52nd. This alone is a testament to the difference in the difficulties of their schedules.
For ATI, it seems this game comes down to two things: If they can sustain their good track record of beating teams on the road, and if they have repaired their defensive line. Their record, combined with their relatively young offense, paints them as the favorite.
For Fitch, it seems this game also comes down to two things: If the team is prepared to gain yardage even without two of their key players and if they can avoid the pressure that comes with playing at home.
These statistics and team analyses tell a story; this story points to the odds in favor of a competitive game, but an ATI victory on Friday night.
